“Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” is one of four movies that are coming out this weekend. What movies will do well at the box office and which ones will not?
The sequel to “Aquaman” starring Jason Momoa is likely to be the biggest new movie in North America. It will likely beat out “Migration,” an animated movie from Universal and Illumination, “Anyone but You,” a love comedy by Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell, and “The Iron Claw,” a biopic about a sports player. But the Warner Bros. comic book movie is in rough water. It’s aiming for a weak $35 million to $40 million in its first four days, which includes Monday, Christmas Day. If it fails, it would be the latest disaster for superhero movies in a terrible year.
It’s not common for December movies to have big opening weekends. Instead, they tend to do well all the way through the new year. In 2018, “Aquaman” opened to a mediocre $67 million, but it quickly soared to a huge $335 million in North America and $1.15 billion worldwide. The $205 million sequel, on the other hand, comes out at a bad time for stories about superheroes in spandex, and “The Lost Kingdom” has been positioned as the last weak film before DC’s new bosses, James Gunn and Peter Safran, reset the huge superhero world. There have already been three DC movies that came out this year that did not do well at all: “The Flash,” “Shazam! Fury of the Gods,” and “Blue Beetle.”
Warner Bros. seems to have cut back on marketing for “Aquaman 2,” but it probably still cost $100 million. Instead of a big red carpet opening with Patrick Wilson, Amber Heard, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Nicole Kidman, and the rest of the cast, the studio chose to hold a “fan screening” and “genre media and influencer” event in Los Angeles with just Momoa and director James Wan. The reviews for the follow-up movie have not been released yet. In it, Aquaman has to save Atlantis from destruction after an ancient power is let loose on the underwater country.
More people are going to the movies on Christmas Day because Warner’s musical version of “The Color Purple,” Neon’s drama “Ferrari,” and George Clooney’s “The Boys in the Boat” are all coming out. It’s not likely that any of these movies will do very well in their first few weekends, which makes theater owners worry about a slow holiday season. As with “Spider-Man: No Way Home” and “Avatar: The Way of Water,” there isn’t a possible billion-dollar hit to end 2023 and keep theaters busy in early 2024.
While “Migration” wants to become the movie that families always watch, it will have to beat out last weekend’s winner, “Wonka.” Timothee Chalamet plays the strange chef Willy Wonka in the Warner Bros. prequel, which is expected to make an extra $21 million to $23 million in its second weekend. So far, it’s made $156 million around the world.
These figures show that “Wonka” will do much better than “Migration,” which hopes to make $12 million to $15 million in its first four days. First-person animation is off to a good start, especially if “Migration” stays alive over the holidays. Going around the world, the movie has already made $14.3 million.
“Migration” was made by the same cartoon studio that made “The Super Mario Bros. Movie,” “Despicable Me,” and the “Sing” and “The Grinch” movies based on the same characters. It cost $70 million to make. Producer and writer Mike White, who also created “The White Lotus” and wrote “School of Rock,” also wrote the comedy about a family of mallard ducks who are leaving for the winter. The voice group is led by Kumail Nanjiani, Elizabeth Banks, Keegan-Michael Key, and Awkwafina.
Four days, “The Iron Claw,” a very different kind of family movie, hopes to make between $5 million and $6 million. “Anyone but You” wants to start in the same single digits.
Most of “The Iron Claw’s” group is led by Zac Efron, who put on weight after “High School Musical.” The well-reviewed movie, written and directed by Sean Durkin (“Martha Marcy May Marlene”), is based on the sad true story of the Von Erich family, a line of professional wrestlers who had a lot of bad luck. The thriller, which cost $16 million to make, is opening on 2,500 screens across the United States. It is the only A24 movie to open across the country instead of just a few cities.
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Gen Z viewers know Sweeney from “Euphoria” and Powell from “Top Gun: Maverick.” Sony’s raunchy, R-rated “Anyone but You” is aimed at this age group. The movie cost $25 million, and SK Global Entertainment and TSG Entertainment both helped pay for it.
In “Anyone but You,” directed by “Easy A” director Will Gluck, two twenty-somethings decide they’re not compatible after a great first date. But when they get to Australia for a vacation wedding, they act like they are the perfect couple to keep up appearances. The movie will be Hollywood’s latest test for R-rated comedies, which have had mixed reviews so far this year. Some movies in this genre did pretty well, like “Cocaine Bear” and “No Hard Feelings” starring Jennifer Lawrence. But “The Machine,” which was based on Bert Kreischer’s stand-up act of the same name, didn’t do as well at all.
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