What’s going on with the Earth’s climate can be called many things: Warming the Earth. Changes in climate. A climate emergency. World-wide weirdness. All of them try to show in different ways the strange things that happen when the weather systems in our world go wrong. Still, even though there are a lot of words to choose from, it’s still a very hard idea to understand.
But scientists at MIT may finally have an answer. Instead of making predictions about Category 5 storms or days with record-high temperatures, they’ve made a tool that lets people see how many “outdoor days” their area might have from now until 2100 if carbon emissions keep rising without being stopped.
Depending on where you live, the results may scare you or make you feel better.
Things don’t look so bad for people in California, France, or Germany. The weather won’t be as nice in the summer, but it will get a little better in the spring and autumn. Compared to past records, this could mean an extra few days to almost a month of nice weather outside. By the end of the century, the UK will have 40 more days to be outside, making things even better.
But not everyone will be successful. Some mild places, like New York, Massachusetts, China, and Japan, will lose at least a week of days spent outside. Things look even worse in other places. By the 2080s, Illinois will lose more than a month of days spent outside because the summers will be too hot to handle. Texas will lose 15 days for the same reason.
Many experts have warned that the countries with the weakest populations will be the ones to suffer the most. It will get even hotter and last longer in Nigeria in the summer, cutting off almost two months of time spent outside. India will lose nearly two months.
That does not need to be the case. The world will be in a lot better shape even if it doesn’t hit net zero carbon emissions by 2050, but it does by 2070. Nigeria and India would only lose one month of outdoor days, and places farther north would keep some of the extra days they have outside.
Checking For Risk
The MIT tool is a useful example of a field of study called climate scenario analysis. This is a type of strategic planning that tries to figure out how climate change will affect different areas and groups of people. Even though the field isn’t brand new, it has become more useful because computers have gotten faster and better at making climate models.
A lot of new businesses are using this relatively new ability to predict the future to help shape an unsure future.
A lot of companies in this field are trying to help investors, lenders, and insurers deal with this uncertainty. Three companiesāJupiter Intelligence, Cervest, and One Concernāall work in these areas and offer screens and data feeds that clients can customise to specific areas or assets they are interested in. The startups also figure out the risk of drought, flood, and wildfire, and they’ll send you reports that explain the risk to your assets and supply lines. They can also make a lot of regulatory disclosures that point out important warming risks.
Investors and insurers are worried enough about how climate change will affect assets and supply lines to give these new businesses a lot of money. PitchBook says that Jupiter Intelligence has raised $97 million, Cervest $43 million, and One Concern $152 million.
Some of the most obvious customers for companies that predict the weather are big banks, but other outdoor-based businesses also need help.
ClimateAI is going after companies in agriculture, such as agribusiness, lenders, and food and drink companies, which have all seen farms destroyed by droughts, floods, and storms. So, figuring out the risk of flooding is a big part of ClimateAI’s predictions. It also gives other weather and climate data. PitchBook says the company has raised $37 million so far.
Smart Weather is working on places that aren’t too far away from most of us. It protects people who are going to live music, camping, golfing, and other outdoor events and activities. It works with camps, golf courses, live event organisers, and more, so they can offer customers the chance to protect their trip against bad weather. PitchBook says that this strategy helped the company get $22 million in funding.
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When more people and companies learn about how climate change is affecting their lives, they will want more information. This will open up a lot of new markets for these startups and their peers to grow. Climate scenario analysis used to be something that only research labs and insurance companies did, but it looks like it will soon be used by everyone.
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