It might have been the least shocking win in the history of the lowa caucuses.
After months of polls, Donald Trump easily won the first Republican primary for president. The final margin was just as large as the polls had forecast.
But the former president was celebrating on Monday night for more than just winning the election. His followers had braved the bitter cold to give him the win.
Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, two of Mr. Trump’s top opponents, did not emerge as a clear front-runner, so the vote against Trump is still split. At the same time, Vivek Ramaswamy, his most politically similar opponent, said he was dropping out. On Tuesday, he will support Trump in New Hampshire.
To better understand why the Iowa results were so important in the race for the White House, read on.
The party of Donald Trump is still in power.
Mr. Trump’s win in Iowa was the biggest in history. The only Iowa county he didn’t win all 99 votes in was that one, which he lost by one vote.
No one had ever won an Iowa election by more than 12 points before Mr. Trump. His margin will be close to 30%, and he could end up getting all of the Republicans who showed up.
After almost all of the votes were counted, Mr. Trump had 51% of the vote, Mr. DeSantis had 21%, and Ms. Haley had 19%.
A poll of Iowans who went to caucus sites on Monday night helps explain why his bid for another term has been so successful so far.
CBS News, the BBC’s US partner, says that about half of the people who go to Republican caucuses see themselves as part of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” programme.
Mr. Trump also won a large win. He won over both men and women, young and old. He also won over evangelicals and hard-right conservatives, who were hard for him to win over in 2016.
Usually, people forget about presidential candidates who lost because they can’t get over the loss. But Mr. Trump has been able to persuade Republicans, both in Iowa and across the country, that he didn’t lose.
A lot of people who went to the Iowa caucuses told CBS that they thought Mr. Trump would win the 2020 presidential election. This number rose to 90% among Trump fans.
The Trump win is a big change.
It has been clear that Mr. Trump is the leader of the Republican Party, but his win here is very unusual in the history of modern American politics.
Three years ago, he finished his first term as president in a cloud of controversy. The January 6 Capitol riot was the culmination of his campaign to challenge his loss to Democrat Joe Biden. Because of those acts, he is being tried twice for crimes.
As the winner of the Iowa caucuses, he has now taken the first big step towards becoming the Republican Party’s presidential choice in November.
Trump still has work to do before he can be the Republican leader. Next week in New Hampshire, where polls show his once-large lead has been cut down to almost nothing, Ms. Haley will be a much tougher opponent for him.
But he is still the clear favourite in the race; real Republican voters backed him in his first test.
There was no clear winner in Iowa.
Before Monday’s Iowa caucuses, the most interesting thing about the election was which candidate would come in second place, after Donald Trump. Mr. DeSantis won the prize for coming in second place.
But it’s not much of an accomplishment when you consider how barely the governor of Florida beat Ms. Haley after spending so much time and money in Iowa.
The outcome, along with Mr. DeSantis’s promise to keep running his campaign, will not be clear enough to set up a face-to-face meeting with Trump in the coming days.
Because of this, Trump’s plan of “divide and conquer” is still fully in place as the Republican primary process starts. This could make his win even more powerful.
The only competitor who dropped out was Mr. Ramaswamy. This makes the field even clearer for the former president, since Mr. Trump is seen as the second choice by his supporters. Even though he only got about 8% of the vote in Iowa, every vote counts, and Mr. Ramaswamy’s support will give Mr. Trump another story to help him get into New Hampshire.
The former president will also be able to target Vice President Biden even more now that Iowa has been called. He was excited to do this in his win speech on Monday night. Democrats, on the other hand, seem to be looking forward to the fight and the chance to take advantage of what they see as Mr. Trump’s weaknesses.
But a string of big wins, starting in Iowa, will give the former president energy and the look of a winner. When the fall general election comes around, Mr. Trump may turn out to be a stronger opponent than they thought or hoped.
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